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• Open Access Article

  12 Pages Download PDF: Does Democracy Come at a Fiscal Cost? Revisiting the Political Business Cycles in Pakistan

  Does Democracy Come at a Fiscal Cost? Revisiting the Political Business Cycles in Pakistan

  Niaz Ali, Muhammad Tariq, Muhammad Azam Khan

  2025-12-02 https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v6i2.663

  The role of electoral incentives on public spending patterns is particularly relevant in developing nations such as Pakistan as it has direct bearing on the issue of fiscal discipline and quality of governance. This study examines the role of electoral cycles on sectoral budgetary allocations at provincial level in Pakistan. Based on panel data of four provinces covering the years 1972-2018, the study uses a Fixed Effects (FE) model to determine dynamic variations in budgetary patterns. These findings are quite solid in favor of the Political Business Cycle (PBC) hypothesis with the results showing that government spending rises by a large margin (23 percentage points of GDP) in election years. It also shows that population development and openness to trade have impact of high magnitude that is positive when it comes to government expenditure, and unemployment level has no significant impact. The evidence shows a greater requirement of fiscal policies and institutional limits so as to put down opportunistic expenditure of the incumbent governments. Pakistan ought to think about institutionalizing long-term rules-based budgetary plans at provinces level to curb discretional expenditure during elections. Opportunistic fiscal expansions could be hindered by legal provisions making statutory budget ceilings obligatory before elections. Lastly, adopting practices of participatory budgeting on a local government level would increase citizen involvement and responsibility, which would minimize the room on fruitlessly spending money based on political interests

  pp. 18-29 Abstract views:208 Downloads:104

• Open Access Article

  17 Pages Download PDF: Impact of E-Banking on Customer Welfare: Empirical Evidence from the Banks in South Punjab (Pakistan)

  Impact of E-Banking on Customer Welfare: Empirical Evidence from the Banks in South Punjab (Pakistan)

  Uzma Hina, Muhammad Omer Chaudhary

  2025-06-30 https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v6i1.633

  It is evident that internet banking (e-banking) revolutionizes financial management through convenience, speed, and accessibility, thus enhancing customer welfare by saving time, reducing costs, and increasing financial control. Hence, this study expands on existing literature by analyzing the impact of e-banking on customer welfare, particularly in banks of Southern Punjab, Pakistan. This study uses Zenithal et al.'s (2005) e-SQ/e-SERVQUAL framework and IFC's (2013) MBQ model, treating customer welfare as an outcome of e-banking service quality. A descriptive-exploratory design was employed to analyze the cause-and-effect relationship between e-banking services and customer welfare. A Logit Model was developed based on data collected from 1029 customers of real-time online branches (RTOB) located in Southern Punjab, Pakistan, to estimate the econometric properties for determining the relationship between e-banking and customer welfare. Findings reveal that E-banking explains 68.59% of welfare variance (R²=0.6859, Adj. R²=0.6825). The Logit model is significant (F=206.33, p=0.000), with education (β=0.009, p=0.012), e-compensation, efficiency, responsiveness, and website layout (all p=0.000) as positive predictors. Gender, location, age, marital status, and income showed no significant impact (p>0.05). The study highlights that Pakistan's banking sector, particularly in Southern Punjab, must improve digital literacy, banking services, and rural infrastructure to enhance e-banking adoption and financial inclusion and contribute more to customer welfare.

  pp. 32-48 Abstract views:194 Downloads:174

• Open Access Article

  9 Pages Download PDF: The Money Market Stability: Exploring the Role of Uncertainty in Pakistan

  The Money Market Stability: Exploring the Role of Uncertainty in Pakistan

  Ayza Shoukat, Muhammad Abdullah

  2025-12-02 https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v6i2.632

  This study proposes an investigation into the relationship between money demand and economic uncertainty in Pakistan. This study extends the Keynes money demand function by including the optimal uncertainty index and analyzes the impact of uncertainty on the money demand. We employed annual data from 1990-2022 and ARDL for data analysis. We used money demand as the dependent variable, the world uncertainty index for Pakistan as a core explanatory variable, with other control variables. The empirical results indicate the existence of a long-run and direct relationship between uncertainty and money demand in Pakistan. The study also provides valuable implications for policymakers for a stable money market.

  pp. 30-38 Abstract views:197 Downloads:111

• Open Access Article

  20 Pages Download PDF: Analysis of Poverty Determinants in Pakistan: Insights from Household-Level Data

  Analysis of Poverty Determinants in Pakistan: Insights from Household-Level Data

  Misbah Nosheen, Mohammad Tahir , Javed Iqbal

  2024-06-15 https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v5i1.573

  The study identifies different household-level determinants of poverty in Pakistan. The study makes use of PSLM (Pakistan Social and Living Standard Measurement) data for the year 2019–2020. By evaluating the Logit and Probit regression models, this study identifies economic factors that contribute to poverty. According to the findings, poverty is positively correlated with the dependence ratio and the number of people with disabilities. In addition, households with literate household heads have lower rates of poverty. Similarly, household heads in urban areas are more likely to have lower levels of poverty than rural residents. Moreover, Sindh has the highest level of poverty, whereas KP has the lowest. Therefore, poverty may be decreased by offering free education, job opportunities, and good planning for population expansion. Because family size has a direct impact on the dependency ratio, governmental efforts to reduce household size must be encouraged. In a similar manner, rehabilitation programs should be created, and monthly transfer payments should be provided to people with disabilities. Therefore, initiatives must be taken to reduce the disparities in the country's infrastructure, health, and education.

  pp. 71-90 Abstract views:432 Downloads:128

• Open Access Article

  11 Pages Download PDF: Social Protection Analysis on Labor Market of Pakistan

  Social Protection Analysis on Labor Market of Pakistan

  Tayyaba Faaiz, Hafsa Bibi, Naseem Akhtar, Mahnoor Fatima

  2025-12-10 https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v6i2.667

  Social security is seen as a fundamental human right. The aim of this study is to explore the effect of social protection on the labor market dynamic. This study is based on the HIES data set from 2018-19. Binary logistic regression is used to estimate the parameters of the labor force participation model. This study found that beneficiaries of social protection programs have a negative trend toward labor force participation in Pakistan. In addition, it is observed that some social indicators like age, the rural living region, and male household head significantly effect on labor force participation. This study also attempts to fill the gap by examining the effect that LFP on educational attainments. The study attempts to highlight the effect of social protection on LFP at the provincial level. The results explore the positive effect on labor force participation of beneficiaries by different age categories. Female labor force participation of grant receivers in Pakistan is still below as compared to males. The results show that the impacts of higher educated people on the labor force are low as compared to uneducated. The study concludes by lying out some recommendations.

  pp. 49-59 Abstract views:262 Downloads:117

• 13 Pages Download PDF: Does More Income Buy More Happiness? Empirical Evidence from the World Values Survey in Pakistan

  Does More Income Buy More Happiness? Empirical Evidence from the World Values Survey in Pakistan

  Samia Awais, Shahzad Kouser, Ihtesham-ul-Haq Padda

  2025-06-30 https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v6i1.639

  This study examines the empirical validity of the Easterlin Paradox in the context of Pakistan, drawing on nationally representative microdata from 1,995 adult respondents in the most recent Wave 7 of the World Values Survey. The paradox posits that while income is positively associated with happiness at a given point in time, long-term income increases do not necessarily lead to sustained improvements in subjective well-being. We examine this relationship through a combination of descriptive statistics and a two-level mixed-effects ordered logistic regression model, which accounts for both individual- and community-level heterogeneity. The analysis confirms that income has a statistically significant positive effect on happiness; however, the inclusion of a squared income term reveals a non-linear, concave relationship, indicating diminishing marginal returns to income—a core tenet of the Easterlin Paradox. Beyond income, a range of non-material factors such as good health, perceived autonomy, confidence in institutions, and social class emerge as significant predictors of happiness. Conversely, factors like food insecurity and being a victim of crime negatively impact subjective well-being. These findings align with the capability approach and recent global literature emphasizing the multidimensional nature of happiness. The study contributes to filling a critical gap in South Asian happiness research by providing country-specific, methodologically rigorous evidence from Pakistan. Policy implications suggest the need for a broader, human-centered development strategy that prioritizes healthcare, education, institutional trust, and social protection, rather than focusing narrowly on income growth. By shifting the focus toward inclusive and holistic well-being, Pakistan can better align its development goals with what truly enhances the lives of its citizens.

  pp. 82-94 Abstract views:215 Downloads:160

• Open Access Article

  18 Pages Download PDF: Analyzing the Influence of Post-2018 Macroeconomic and Bank-Specific Indicators on Banking Sector Profitability: Evidence from Pakistan

  Analyzing the Influence of Post-2018 Macroeconomic and Bank-Specific Indicators on Banking Sector Profitability: Evidence from Pakistan

  Muhammad Iqbal, Muhammad Munir Ahmad, Naeem Raza, Muhammad Tayyeb Hafeez

  2025-06-27 https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v6i1.643

  This study examines the impact of macroeconomic and bank-specific indicators on the profitability of Pakistan’s banking sector, focusing on the volatile post-2018 period. Using return on assets (ROA) as the performance metric, it analyzes data from 20 commercial banks between 2018 and 2023. Panel data regression, conducted via Gretl software, reveals that these internal factors—Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Spread Ratio (SR), and Earnings per Share (EPS)—positively and significantly influence ROA, while Firm Size (SZ) has a significant negative effect. In contrast, macroeconomic indicators like Exchange Rate (EXR), GDP, and Policy Rate (POLR) show insignificant negative relationships, and Inflation (INF), Foreign Exchange Reserves (FXRV), and Cash Equivalents (CEQU) have insignificant positive effects. These findings highlight that bank-level factors play a more critical role than external economic conditions in determining profitability. The study recommends that bank managers focus on operational efficiency and

  pp. 119-136 Abstract views:216 Downloads:118

• Open Access Article

  17 Pages Download PDF: The Empirics of Okun’s Law Using Augmented ARDL: The Case of Pakistan

  The Empirics of Okun’s Law Using Augmented ARDL: The Case of Pakistan

  Shah Khalid, Ibrar Hussain, Nafees Ahmad, Riaz Ahmad, Sajjadullah

  2025-12-02 https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v6i2.646

  From time series data covering 1972 to 2024, the objective of the study is to investigate the Okun's coefficient for Pakistan. The coefficient of Okun's law is determined using the Augmented ARDL econometric technique to estimate the long-run elasticities and short-run dynamics while sidestepping degenerate cases. Four variations of the Okun's law—the gap, difference, dynamic version, and augmented production function versions—are applied to estimate the Okun's coefficient. In order to measure output and unemployment gap, Hodrick-rescott (HP) filter is also used. The empirical results demonstrated that in case of Pakistan the law doesn’t hold as evidenced by the comparatively low coefficients obtained applying all four versions.

  pp. 1-17 Abstract views:255 Downloads:128

• Open Access Article

  15 Pages Download PDF: Analyzing the Impact of Income Inequality on Women Empowerment in Punjab, Pakistan

  Analyzing the Impact of Income Inequality on Women Empowerment in Punjab, Pakistan

  Misbah Bashir, Muhammad Umar Farooq, Abdul Majeed Nadeem

  2025-12-27 https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v6i2.669

  The present study investigates the impact of income inequality on women’s empowerment in the districts of Punjab, Pakistan. Data on income inequality, women's empowerment, and other variables of interest are drawn from four waves of the Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey for the period 2008 to 2018. Three aspects, including education, health, and political participation of women, have been considered in the measurement of the women empowerment index. A fixed-effects approach is applied for the empirical evaluation of the data. The empirical outcomes show that a reduction in income inequality is significantly helpful in enhancing women’s empowerment across all districts.

  pp. 60-74 Abstract views:212 Downloads:109

• Open Access Article

  16 Pages Download PDF: Impact of Financial Inclusion Using Community Investment Fund on Poverty Graduation in Rural Sindh of Pakistan

  Impact of Financial Inclusion Using Community Investment Fund on Poverty Graduation in Rural Sindh of Pakistan

  Talat Anwar, Fazal Ali Khan, Lubna Hassan, Amna Ejaz

  2025-06-25 https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v6i1.640

  Financial inclusion offers significant benefits to the unbanked poor population, but barriers such as low literacy, lack of trust in formal financial institutions, and high transaction costs often hinder the use of formal banking services. On the other hand, the Community Investment Fund (CIF) is a revolving grant managed by community-based organisations that provides a low-cost, sustainable solution. The paper examines the impact of financial inclusion through CIF funds on poverty graduation in Rural Sindh, Pakistan. The Poverty Scorecard (PSC) tool is used to assess the changes in the poverty status of CIF loan and grant beneficiaries using before-and-after approaches. A household survey dataset from rural Sindh, covering 4,023 randomly selected households, is analysed. The findings suggest that financial inclusion through community investment funds has positively impacted poor households and helped them graduate from a lower poverty band to a higher one. Compared to conventional sources of finance like Microfinance Banks, the findings suggest that CIF loans appear to be largely cost-effective. We thus recommend increasing CIF coverage for poor segments of the population in Pakistan, as it provides a low-cost, sustainable solution for poverty graduation and increases the cost-effectiveness of social protection programmes in the country.

  pp. 95-110 Abstract views:348 Downloads:120

• Open Access Article

  8 Pages Download PDF: From Income to Inclusion: A Comparative Human Capabilities Index for South Asian Economic Development

  From Income to Inclusion: A Comparative Human Capabilities Index for South Asian Economic Development

  Zaeema Farooq, Shaista Raza, Aqsa Hameed, Iqra Mehmood, Sidra Bano

  2025-06-25 https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v6i1.641

  A new Comparative Human Capabilities Index (CHCI), which goes beyond conventional measures like GDP or HDI, is presented in this study to evaluate the economic progress of South Asian nations. GDP per capita, GDP per person employed, trade as a percentage of GDP, life expectancy, secondary school enrollment, and GDP per capita are the six main variables that make up the index, which is based on Amartya Sen's capability approach. Data were collected from the World Bank for eight nations between 2001 and 2015: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. In order to ensure comparability across variables, the CHCI was built using equal weighting and min-max normalization. The findings indicate that while Bangladesh and India have made notable progress over time, the Maldives and Sri Lanka continue to rank first in terms of human skills. Despite beginning with lower levels, Afghanistan and Nepal showed signs of improvement over time. As an alternative to more conventional indices like the Human progress Index (HDI), the index offers a more human-centered and inclusive lens through which to view the region's economic progress. This strategy emphasizes how crucial it is to make investments in productivity, health, and education in order to achieve long-term, fair development.

  pp. 111-118 Abstract views:187 Downloads:87