Vol. 6 No. 2 (2025)

Articles

• Open Access Article

  17 Pages Download PDF: The Empirics of Okun’s Law Using Augmented ARDL: The Case of Pakistan

  The Empirics of Okun’s Law Using Augmented ARDL: The Case of Pakistan

  Shah Khalid, Ibrar Hussain, Nafees Ahmad, Riaz Ahmad, Sajjadullah

  https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v6i2.646

  From time series data covering 1972 to 2024, the objective of the study is to investigate the Okun's coefficient for Pakistan. The coefficient of Okun's law is determined using the Augmented ARDL econometric technique to estimate the long-run elasticities and short-run dynamics while sidestepping degenerate cases. Four variations of the Okun's law—the gap, difference, dynamic version, and augmented production function versions—are applied to estimate the Okun's coefficient. In order to measure output and unemployment gap, Hodrick-rescott (HP) filter is also used. The empirical results demonstrated that in case of Pakistan the law doesn’t hold as evidenced by the comparatively low coefficients obtained applying all four versions.

  pp. 1-17 Abstract views:255 Downloads:128

• Open Access Article

  12 Pages Download PDF: Does Democracy Come at a Fiscal Cost? Revisiting the Political Business Cycles in Pakistan

  Does Democracy Come at a Fiscal Cost? Revisiting the Political Business Cycles in Pakistan

  Niaz Ali, Muhammad Tariq, Muhammad Azam Khan

  https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v6i2.663

  The role of electoral incentives on public spending patterns is particularly relevant in developing nations such as Pakistan as it has direct bearing on the issue of fiscal discipline and quality of governance. This study examines the role of electoral cycles on sectoral budgetary allocations at provincial level in Pakistan. Based on panel data of four provinces covering the years 1972-2018, the study uses a Fixed Effects (FE) model to determine dynamic variations in budgetary patterns. These findings are quite solid in favor of the Political Business Cycle (PBC) hypothesis with the results showing that government spending rises by a large margin (23 percentage points of GDP) in election years. It also shows that population development and openness to trade have impact of high magnitude that is positive when it comes to government expenditure, and unemployment level has no significant impact. The evidence shows a greater requirement of fiscal policies and institutional limits so as to put down opportunistic expenditure of the incumbent governments. Pakistan ought to think about institutionalizing long-term rules-based budgetary plans at provinces level to curb discretional expenditure during elections. Opportunistic fiscal expansions could be hindered by legal provisions making statutory budget ceilings obligatory before elections. Lastly, adopting practices of participatory budgeting on a local government level would increase citizen involvement and responsibility, which would minimize the room on fruitlessly spending money based on political interests

  pp. 18-29 Abstract views:208 Downloads:104

• Open Access Article

  9 Pages Download PDF: The Money Market Stability: Exploring the Role of Uncertainty in Pakistan

  The Money Market Stability: Exploring the Role of Uncertainty in Pakistan

  Ayza Shoukat, Muhammad Abdullah

  https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v6i2.632

  This study proposes an investigation into the relationship between money demand and economic uncertainty in Pakistan. This study extends the Keynes money demand function by including the optimal uncertainty index and analyzes the impact of uncertainty on the money demand. We employed annual data from 1990-2022 and ARDL for data analysis. We used money demand as the dependent variable, the world uncertainty index for Pakistan as a core explanatory variable, with other control variables. The empirical results indicate the existence of a long-run and direct relationship between uncertainty and money demand in Pakistan. The study also provides valuable implications for policymakers for a stable money market.

  pp. 30-38 Abstract views:197 Downloads:111

• Open Access Article

  10 Pages Download PDF: Behavioral Intentions and Determinants of Consumer Preference for Islamic Banks in Faisalabad

  Behavioral Intentions and Determinants of Consumer Preference for Islamic Banks in Faisalabad

  Noreen Riaz, Hazoor Muhammad Sabir, Anam Shehzadi

  https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v6i2.649

  The current study analyzed the Behavioral Intentions and determinants of consumer preferences about Islamic Banking in Faisalabad. The primary data for this study is collected from 230 consumers in 2024 from different Islamic Banks in Faisalabad region. To estimate the consumer’s preferences and satisfaction about Islamic banking, the study employs binary logistic regression model. The variable of consumer preference is dependent variable and in binary form. Moreover, awareness of Islamic banking, perceived sharia compliance and, trust in Islamic institutions are main independent variables of the study. According to the estimated results, the variable of respondent education, knowledge about the profit margin on Islamic bank, Awareness about service quality, insurance policy according to Shariah laws, leasing policy according to Shariah laws, deposit policy according to Shariah laws, bank charges, shows positive and significant relationship with the consumer preferences. Regarding demographic variables, the age of respondents, urban and rural region, marital status, gender, religion show positive but insignificant relation with the consumer preferences. On this research provide some suggestions and policy recommendations for concerned policy maker based on customer satisfaction and Knowledge in Islamic banking and shariah compliance.

  pp. 39-48 Abstract views:214 Downloads:126

• Open Access Article

  11 Pages Download PDF: Social Protection Analysis on Labor Market of Pakistan

  Social Protection Analysis on Labor Market of Pakistan

  Tayyaba Faaiz, Hafsa Bibi, Naseem Akhtar, Mahnoor Fatima

  https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v6i2.667

  Social security is seen as a fundamental human right. The aim of this study is to explore the effect of social protection on the labor market dynamic. This study is based on the HIES data set from 2018-19. Binary logistic regression is used to estimate the parameters of the labor force participation model. This study found that beneficiaries of social protection programs have a negative trend toward labor force participation in Pakistan. In addition, it is observed that some social indicators like age, the rural living region, and male household head significantly effect on labor force participation. This study also attempts to fill the gap by examining the effect that LFP on educational attainments. The study attempts to highlight the effect of social protection on LFP at the provincial level. The results explore the positive effect on labor force participation of beneficiaries by different age categories. Female labor force participation of grant receivers in Pakistan is still below as compared to males. The results show that the impacts of higher educated people on the labor force are low as compared to uneducated. The study concludes by lying out some recommendations.

  pp. 49-59 Abstract views:262 Downloads:117

• Open Access Article

  15 Pages Download PDF: Analyzing the Impact of Income Inequality on Women Empowerment in Punjab, Pakistan

  Analyzing the Impact of Income Inequality on Women Empowerment in Punjab, Pakistan

  Misbah Bashir, Muhammad Umar Farooq, Abdul Majeed Nadeem

  https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v6i2.669

  The present study investigates the impact of income inequality on women’s empowerment in the districts of Punjab, Pakistan. Data on income inequality, women's empowerment, and other variables of interest are drawn from four waves of the Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey for the period 2008 to 2018. Three aspects, including education, health, and political participation of women, have been considered in the measurement of the women empowerment index. A fixed-effects approach is applied for the empirical evaluation of the data. The empirical outcomes show that a reduction in income inequality is significantly helpful in enhancing women’s empowerment across all districts.

  pp. 60-74 Abstract views:212 Downloads:109

• Open Access Article

  19 Pages Download PDF: The Role of Energy Investment in Promoting Economic Sustainability in Developing Countries: A CS-ARDL Analysis

  The Role of Energy Investment in Promoting Economic Sustainability in Developing Countries: A CS-ARDL Analysis

  Aqeel Ahmad, Tusawar Iftikhar Ahmad, Asma Sajjad, Sajjad Ali

  https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v6i2.673

  Energy investment plays a pivotal role in promoting economic sustainability through a reliable energy supply to support industrial production and innovation. The current work investigates the difference in energy investment and economic sustainability between 1990 and 2022 for 88 developing countries with an income classification. Using the Cross-Sectional Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) methodology, the research simultaneously tests short- and long-run dynamics while explicitly modeling cross-sectional dependence. The results suggest that although labor force participation, capital formation, human capital, and foreign direct investment have positive impacts on economic sustainability across income levels, energy investment, especially when used for creating public-private partnerships, fosters economic growth in middle-income economies but has a negative correlation with low-income economies. Policy implications drawn from the findings indicate that boosting investment in the energy sector, with special focus on the use of renewable technologies in low- income countries, would be an effective strategy for promoting sustainable development.

  pp. 75-93 Abstract views:144 Downloads:90

• Open Access Article

  17 Pages Download PDF: Innovating for a Greener Future: Assessing the Impact of Renewable Energy, Resource Efficiency, and Technology on CO₂ Emission Reduction

  Innovating for a Greener Future: Assessing the Impact of Renewable Energy, Resource Efficiency, and Technology on CO₂ Emission Reduction

  Mahnaz Muhammad Ali, Rehana Kousar, Mahrukh Ruba, Samar Abbas, Qurat Ul Ain

  https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v6i2.675

  This paper explores how CO2 is emitted in 30 developing Asian economies. Such countries differ in terms of income levels, such as low, middle, and high income, and the years between 1990 and 2022 are included in the study. It employs a powerful econometric model in which both the System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is used to overcome dynamic endogeneity and Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) is used to overcome potential reverse causality. This integrated methodology serves well to investigate the impacts of renewable energy use, the availability of natural resources, and technological innovation on the level of emissions. These findings of the study demonstrate a complex dynamic. There is presently a positive relationship between technological innovation and the rise in emissions, which can be attributed to the fact that technology is used to streamline the industrialization process that uses fossil fuels on a large scale. On the contrary, renewable energy and natural resources also contribute to the decrease in CO2 emissions. One of the biggest revelations is that production-oriented industrialization, particularly after China's entry into the WTO in 2001, has contributed greatly to the growth in global emissions. Since, in most cases, the area lacks powerful and effective environmental laws, this study emphasizes the necessity of modifications in policy. Steps such as promoting green innovation technology and introducing a price on carbon are crucial to uncoupling economic growth and emissions and creating an efficient global climate policy.

  pp. 94-110 Abstract views:4156 Downloads:80