Articles

• Open Access Article Economics

  15 Pages Download PDF: Alternating Heads of State And Structural Transformation In Sub-Saharan Africa: A Panel VAR Analysis

  Alternating Heads of State And Structural Transformation In Sub-Saharan Africa: A Panel VAR Analysis

  Tourere Zenabou, Nzepang Fabrice

  https://doi.org/10.36923/ie-frontiers.v29i2.436

  This study examines the dynamic interaction between head-of-state alternation and structural transformation in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), an issue that has received limited attention compared with the established literature on political alternation and economic growth. Using data from Limi Kouotou and Epo (2019), the Africa Sector Database, and World Development Indicators for 17 SSA countries over 1970–2015, the study estimates a panel vector autoregression (pVAR) model. The study examines structural transformation through two components: structural change and intra-industry productivity. The results show that innovations in head-of-state alternation are more strongly associated with structural change than with intra-industry productivity. The impulse-response analysis further indicates that head-of-state alternation responds positively to structural-change shocks and negatively to intra-industry-productivity shocks. Forecast-error variance decomposition shows that innovations in head-of-state alternation explain 25.5% of the variance in structural change and 13.4% of the variance in intra-industry productivity, while FDI accounts for 51.2% of the forecast-error variance in head-of-state alternation. The study contributes to the literature by moving beyond the conventional growth–politics relationship and demonstrating the dynamic association between political alternation and the components of structural transformation in SSA.

  pp. 1-15 Abstract views:262 Downloads:145

• Open Access In Press Macroeconomics Finance

  17 Pages Download PDF: The Asymmetric Associations of Foreign Aid and Remittances with Real GDP per Capita in Developing Countries: Evidence from a CS-NARDL Approach

  The Asymmetric Associations of Foreign Aid and Remittances with Real GDP per Capita in Developing Countries: Evidence from a CS-NARDL Approach

  Moheddine Younsi, Marwa Bechtini

  https://doi.org/10.36923/ie-frontiers.v29i2.438

  This study examines the asymmetric associations of foreign aid and remittances with real GDP per capita in 68 developing countries, comprising 17 low-income countries (LICs) and 51 middle-income countries (MICs), over 1980–2023. It employs a Cross-Sectionally Augmented Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-NARDL) approach, controlling for financial development and foreign direct investment. The methodology captures asymmetric short- and long-run responses to positive and negative changes in foreign aid and remittances while accounting for cross-sectional dependence. The findings show positive coefficients on positive changes in both inflows, while the reported negative coefficients on signed decline components imply a positive predicted income response to declines in these inflows. The estimated aid associations vary more substantially across income groups, with LICs showing greater sensitivity to changes in aid flows. In the short-run, the effects are generally weaker and more heterogeneous, with growth responses to positive changes in foreign aid and remittances varying across model specifications. The expansion and contraction specifications yield different associations; their signs do not establish that external inflows cushion downturns. A supplementary Dynamic Common Correlated Effects (DCCE) specification reports broadly similar coefficient patterns. Overall, the findings underscore the importance of accounting for asymmetric responses when examining the relationship between foreign aid, remittances, and economic growth in developing countries. The findings warrant cautious policy interpretation because several estimated associations differ from the proposed economic mechanisms.

  pp. 16-32 Abstract views:129 Downloads:84