Articles

• Open Access Article Economics

  10 Pages Download PDF: An Asymmetrical Relationship Between Oil Price Fluctuations And Geopolitical Tensions Between China And The United States

  An Asymmetrical Relationship Between Oil Price Fluctuations And Geopolitical Tensions Between China And The United States

  Abdelkader Mohamed Sghaier Derbali

  https://doi.org/10.36923/ie-frontiers.v29i1.408

  Oil remains a strategic asset at the heart of contemporary geopolitical rivalries. China’s rise to become the world’s largest importer and the United States’ transformation into a major producer and exporter have profoundly altered the energy balance of power, reinforcing the interdependence between oil markets and bilateral geopolitical tensions. This article examines the existence and nature of an asymmetric relationship between oil price fluctuations and geopolitical tensions between China and the United States, distinguishing the effects of price increases and decreases and their dependence on risk regimes. The analysis is based on monthly data covering 2000–2024 and employs a nonlinear econometric approach that combines an NARDL model for asymmetric cointegration, a Quantile VAR (QVAR) model to capture conditional effects by risk level, and an EGARCH model to analyze the asymmetric transmission of geopolitical uncertainty to oil volatility. The results show that rising oil prices significantly intensify Sino-American geopolitical tensions, while falling prices have a weaker and less persistent effect. This asymmetry is particularly pronounced during periods of high international instability. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions significantly increase oil price volatility, with a leverage effect indicating that negative geopolitical shocks have a disproportionate impact on energy markets. These results suggest that the asymmetry in the oil-geopolitical transmission reflects differentiated energy vulnerabilities and distinct strategic behaviors between China and the United States. The study underscores the importance of oil as a vector of asymmetric interdependence and as an amplifier of international tensions, with major implications for energy security policies, financial market stability, and global energy governance.

  pp. 01-10 Abstract views:790 Downloads:685

• Open Access Article Macroeconomics

  14 Pages Download PDF: Technological Innovation, Governance Institutions, Infrastructure Development, and Economic Complexity in Africa: Evidence from Dynamic Panel Data

  Technological Innovation, Governance Institutions, Infrastructure Development, and Economic Complexity in Africa: Evidence from Dynamic Panel Data

  Obed Ifeanyichukwu Ojonta, Jonathan Emenike Ogbuabor

  https://doi.org/10.36923/ie-frontiers.v29i1.419

  Africa continues to face persistent development challenges, including poverty, income inequality, limited access to healthcare services, and disparities in education. These challenges contradict the objectives of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which emphasize the importance of innovation, infrastructure development, and strong institutions. Technological innovation has increasingly been recognized as a key channel for promoting infrastructure development, improving economic complexity, and strengthening institutional performance. Motivated by these considerations, this study examines the combined effects of technological innovation, governance institutions, human capital development, infrastructure, and foreign direct investment on economic complexity in Africa. In addition, the study investigates how technological innovation, governance institutions, remittances, foreign direct investment, and economic complexity influence infrastructure development across African economies. The analysis employs the system generalized method of moments (system GMM) estimator using panel data for 31 African countries covering the period from 2011 to 2020. The results reveal that technological innovation has a positive and statistically significant effect on both economic complexity and infrastructure development in Africa. However, the indicators of governance institutions are largely negative and statistically insignificant in their influence on economic complexity and infrastructure. Furthermore, governance institutions do not significantly moderate the relationship between technological innovation and these development outcomes. These findings highlight the importance of strengthening technological innovation systems while addressing institutional weaknesses to promote sustainable economic development across the African continent.

  pp. 11-24 Abstract views:634 Downloads:581

• Open Access Article Economics

  16 Pages Download PDF: When Green Accounting Fails to Drive Green Energy: Institutional Quality and China’s Renewable Energy Transition

  When Green Accounting Fails to Drive Green Energy: Institutional Quality and China’s Renewable Energy Transition

  Saqib Munir, Mushab Rashid, Abdul Ghaffar

  https://doi.org/10.36923/ie-frontiers.v29i1.426

  This study examines how institutional quality, government R&D expenditure, and SEEA-aligned environmental asset indicators are associated with renewable energy adoption in China from 1999 to 2023. It addresses the puzzle that environmental accounting signals and innovation investment do not automatically translate into renewable energy use. Annual data from the World Development Indicators and Worldwide Governance Indicators were analyzed using a hybrid empirical strategy. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach was applied to estimate short-run and long-run relationships, while Double Machine Learning, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and SHAP interpretability were used as supplementary tools for robustness and predictive importance. Given the limited sample size, machine-learning results are interpreted as orthogonalized associations and as predictive evidence rather than as definitive causal effects. ARDL results show that regulatory quality has a positive and statistically significant long-run association with renewable energy adoption. In contrast, government R&D expenditure and adjusted net savings show negative associations, suggesting that innovation spending and fiscal capacity may not support renewable energy adoption unless directed toward deployment and energy-system substitution. Energy resource depletion is statistically insignificant, while natural resource rents show a weak positive long-run association. Machine-learning results identify government R&D expenditure as the strongest predictor, although its direction remains negative. The findings indicate that China’s renewable energy transition depends less on fiscal or technological inputs alone and more on the institutional capacity to convert these inputs into adoption outcomes. The study implies that SEEA-based indicators should be integrated with regulatory mechanisms, deployment-oriented innovation policy, and outcome-based evaluation of energy transition.

  pp. 25-40 Abstract views:516 Downloads:170

• Open Access Article Economics

  14 Pages Download PDF: Financial Development, Globalization, and Economic Growth in The Next-11 Countries: Evidence from a Panel ARDL Model

  Financial Development, Globalization, and Economic Growth in The Next-11 Countries: Evidence from a Panel ARDL Model

  Moheddine Younsi

  https://doi.org/10.36923/ie-frontiers.v29i1.427

  Given the growing importance of financial development and globalization in shaping economic growth over recent decades, particularly in the context of the Next-11 countries, policymakers need to carefully assess both the individual and joint effects of these factors to design policies that maximize their growth-enhancing potential. Accordingly, this study investigates the short-run and long-run effects of financial development and globalization—both independently and interactively—on economic growth in the Next-11 countries over the period 1990–2023, employing a panel ARDL framework. The empirical results reveal that financial development and globalization each have negative and significant effects on economic growth in both the short and long run. However, the interaction term between financial development and globalization is positive and significant across both time horizons, providing strong support for the complementarity hypothesis. This finding suggests that, although each factor individually constrains growth, their joint effect mitigates these adverse impacts and ultimately enhances growth outcomes. With respect to the control variables, labor has a positive and significant impact on economic growth in both the short run and the long run, highlighting the critical role of human capital and labor force expansion. Physical capital is found to be insignificant in the long run but exhibits mixed effects in the short run. Inflation remains insignificant in the long run but shows a small yet positive and significant effect in the short run. Overall, these results offer important policy implications, emphasizing the need for coordinated financial and external-sector policies to promote sustainable economic growth in the Next-11 countries.

  pp. 41-54 Abstract views:570 Downloads:240