Open access Articles CC BY 4.0 November 1, 2026

Open Access In Press Macroeconomics Finance

The Asymmetric Associations of Foreign Aid and Remittances with Real GDP per Capita in Developing Countries: Evidence from a CS-NARDL Approach

Authors

Authors: Moheddine Younsi1,*, Marwa Bechtini2

Author info & affiliations
  1. (a) Department of Business Administration, College of Science and Humanities, Shaqra University, Dawadmi 17452, Saudi Arabia
    (b) Department of Economics, Higher Institute of Finance and Taxation, University of Sousse, Sousse 4054, Tunisia
  2. (a) Department of Business Administration, College of Science and Humanities, Shaqra University, Dawadmi 17452, Saudi Arabia
    (b) Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Sfax, Sfax 3018, Tunisia
  3. * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Publication: Innovation Economics Frontiers, Vol. 29 No. 2 (2026): Continuous, pp. 16-32 https://doi.org/10.36923/ie-frontiers.v29i2.438

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Abstract

This study examines the asymmetric associations of foreign aid and remittances with real GDP per capita in 68 developing countries, comprising 17 low-income countries (LICs) and 51 middle-income countries (MICs), over 1980–2023. It employs a Cross-Sectionally Augmented Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-NARDL) approach, controlling for financial development and foreign direct investment. The methodology captures asymmetric short- and long-run responses to positive and negative changes in foreign aid and remittances while accounting for cross-sectional dependence. The findings show positive coefficients on positive changes in both inflows, while the reported negative coefficients on signed decline components imply a positive predicted income response to declines in these inflows. The estimated aid associations vary more substantially across income groups, with LICs showing greater sensitivity to changes in aid flows. In the short-run, the effects are generally weaker and more heterogeneous, with growth responses to positive changes in foreign aid and remittances varying across model specifications. The expansion and contraction specifications yield different associations; their signs do not establish that external inflows cushion downturns. A supplementary Dynamic Common Correlated Effects (DCCE) specification reports broadly similar coefficient patterns. Overall, the findings underscore the importance of accounting for asymmetric responses when examining the relationship between foreign aid, remittances, and economic growth in developing countries. The findings warrant cautious policy interpretation because several estimated associations differ from the proposed economic mechanisms.

Article information

Keywords
Foreign AidRemittancesEconomic GrowthCS-NARDL ModelDeveloping Countries
Section
Articles
Issue
Vol. 29 No. 2 (2026): Continuous
Pages
16-32
Submitted
September 3, 2026
Accepted
October 19, 2026
Published
November 1, 2026
Corresponding author
Moheddine Younsi
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Article highlights

  • Across 68 developing countries, aid and remittance changes relate to income.
  • Increases in both inflows are positively associated with income per person.
  • The models also link falling inflows with higher predicted income.
  • Aid links differ more across income groups than remittance links.
  • Expansion and contraction periods show different association patterns.

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