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• Open Access Article

  32 Pages Download PDF: Unmasking the Dynamics: Drivers of the Shadow Economy in SAARC Countries

  Unmasking the Dynamics: Drivers of the Shadow Economy in SAARC Countries

  Abdul Saboor, Muhammad Ramzan Sheikh

  2024-06-14 https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v5i1.569

  The study aims to investigate the determinants of the shadow economy in SAARC countries during the period from 1995 to 2021. The study uses three proxies for the shadow economy as dependent variables, which are the ratio of reserve to narrow money (Shadow-1), the ratio of narrow to broad money (Shadow-2), and the ratio of currency in circulation to broad money (Shadow-3), while trade, tax, unemployment, government final consumption expenditure (GFCE), governance index (GI), and economic freedom index (EFI) are used as independent variables. The study applies the second-generation panel unit root test and the method of moments-quantile regression (MM-QR) technique. The findings of the study are that, as theoretically expected, the independent variables, trade, tax, unemployment, and government final consumption expenditure (GFCE), have positive and significant coefficients, while the governance index (GI) and economic freedom index (EFI) have a negative and significant effect on the shadow economy in SAARC countries. The study suggests that economic freedom and governance quality should be improved, and government size, tax, and unemployment should be decreased to control the shadow economy in SAARC countries.

  pp. 16-47 Abstract views:195 Downloads:97

• Open Access Article

  8 Pages Download PDF: From Income to Inclusion: A Comparative Human Capabilities Index for South Asian Economic Development

  From Income to Inclusion: A Comparative Human Capabilities Index for South Asian Economic Development

  Zaeema Farooq, Shaista Raza, Aqsa Hameed, Iqra Mehmood, Sidra Bano

  2025-06-25 https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v6i1.641

  A new Comparative Human Capabilities Index (CHCI), which goes beyond conventional measures like GDP or HDI, is presented in this study to evaluate the economic progress of South Asian nations. GDP per capita, GDP per person employed, trade as a percentage of GDP, life expectancy, secondary school enrollment, and GDP per capita are the six main variables that make up the index, which is based on Amartya Sen's capability approach. Data were collected from the World Bank for eight nations between 2001 and 2015: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. In order to ensure comparability across variables, the CHCI was built using equal weighting and min-max normalization. The findings indicate that while Bangladesh and India have made notable progress over time, the Maldives and Sri Lanka continue to rank first in terms of human skills. Despite beginning with lower levels, Afghanistan and Nepal showed signs of improvement over time. As an alternative to more conventional indices like the Human progress Index (HDI), the index offers a more human-centered and inclusive lens through which to view the region's economic progress. This strategy emphasizes how crucial it is to make investments in productivity, health, and education in order to achieve long-term, fair development.

  pp. 111-118 Abstract views:187 Downloads:87

• Open Access Article

  12 Pages Download PDF: Does Democracy Come at a Fiscal Cost? Revisiting the Political Business Cycles in Pakistan

  Does Democracy Come at a Fiscal Cost? Revisiting the Political Business Cycles in Pakistan

  Niaz Ali, Muhammad Tariq, Muhammad Azam Khan

  2025-12-02 https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v6i2.663

  The role of electoral incentives on public spending patterns is particularly relevant in developing nations such as Pakistan as it has direct bearing on the issue of fiscal discipline and quality of governance. This study examines the role of electoral cycles on sectoral budgetary allocations at provincial level in Pakistan. Based on panel data of four provinces covering the years 1972-2018, the study uses a Fixed Effects (FE) model to determine dynamic variations in budgetary patterns. These findings are quite solid in favor of the Political Business Cycle (PBC) hypothesis with the results showing that government spending rises by a large margin (23 percentage points of GDP) in election years. It also shows that population development and openness to trade have impact of high magnitude that is positive when it comes to government expenditure, and unemployment level has no significant impact. The evidence shows a greater requirement of fiscal policies and institutional limits so as to put down opportunistic expenditure of the incumbent governments. Pakistan ought to think about institutionalizing long-term rules-based budgetary plans at provinces level to curb discretional expenditure during elections. Opportunistic fiscal expansions could be hindered by legal provisions making statutory budget ceilings obligatory before elections. Lastly, adopting practices of participatory budgeting on a local government level would increase citizen involvement and responsibility, which would minimize the room on fruitlessly spending money based on political interests

  pp. 18-29 Abstract views:208 Downloads:104