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• Open Access Article

  18 Pages Download PDF: Analyzing the Influence of Post-2018 Macroeconomic and Bank-Specific Indicators on Banking Sector Profitability: Evidence from Pakistan

  Analyzing the Influence of Post-2018 Macroeconomic and Bank-Specific Indicators on Banking Sector Profitability: Evidence from Pakistan

  Muhammad Iqbal, Muhammad Munir Ahmad, Naeem Raza, Muhammad Tayyeb Hafeez

  2025-06-27 https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v6i1.643

  This study examines the impact of macroeconomic and bank-specific indicators on the profitability of Pakistan’s banking sector, focusing on the volatile post-2018 period. Using return on assets (ROA) as the performance metric, it analyzes data from 20 commercial banks between 2018 and 2023. Panel data regression, conducted via Gretl software, reveals that these internal factors—Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Spread Ratio (SR), and Earnings per Share (EPS)—positively and significantly influence ROA, while Firm Size (SZ) has a significant negative effect. In contrast, macroeconomic indicators like Exchange Rate (EXR), GDP, and Policy Rate (POLR) show insignificant negative relationships, and Inflation (INF), Foreign Exchange Reserves (FXRV), and Cash Equivalents (CEQU) have insignificant positive effects. These findings highlight that bank-level factors play a more critical role than external economic conditions in determining profitability. The study recommends that bank managers focus on operational efficiency and

  pp. 119-136 Abstract views:216 Downloads:118

• Open Access Article

  18 Pages Download PDF: Drivers of Carbon Emissions in South Asia: Analyzing Economic Growth, Urbanization, Tourism, Industrialization, and Renewable Energy

  Drivers of Carbon Emissions in South Asia: Analyzing Economic Growth, Urbanization, Tourism, Industrialization, and Renewable Energy

  Rehana Kousar, Muhammad Sharyar, Mahnaz Muhammad Ali, Rana Sharjeel Akhtar

  2025-06-22 https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v6i1.617

  Rising CO₂ emissions pose a global challenge, including in South Asia. This study examines the determinants of CO₂ emissions—economic growth, urbanization, tourism, industrialization, renewable energy, agriculture, and forest area—using panel data (1990–2021) from South Asian countries. Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and panel unit root tests reveal long-run relationships. Urbanization, tourism, and agricultural value-added significantly increase CO₂ emissions, while economic growth, renewable energy, and forest area negatively correlate with emissions. The findings suggest that energy-intensive urbanization, tourism, and agricultural expansion drive emissions, whereas renewable energy adoption and forest conservation mitigate them. Policymakers must prioritize sustainable urbanization, green tourism, and renewable energy transitions to curb emissions while fostering economic development.

  pp. 14-31 Abstract views:273 Downloads:146

• Open Access Article

  12 Pages Download PDF: Does Democracy Come at a Fiscal Cost? Revisiting the Political Business Cycles in Pakistan

  Does Democracy Come at a Fiscal Cost? Revisiting the Political Business Cycles in Pakistan

  Niaz Ali, Muhammad Tariq, Muhammad Azam Khan

  2025-12-02 https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v6i2.663

  The role of electoral incentives on public spending patterns is particularly relevant in developing nations such as Pakistan as it has direct bearing on the issue of fiscal discipline and quality of governance. This study examines the role of electoral cycles on sectoral budgetary allocations at provincial level in Pakistan. Based on panel data of four provinces covering the years 1972-2018, the study uses a Fixed Effects (FE) model to determine dynamic variations in budgetary patterns. These findings are quite solid in favor of the Political Business Cycle (PBC) hypothesis with the results showing that government spending rises by a large margin (23 percentage points of GDP) in election years. It also shows that population development and openness to trade have impact of high magnitude that is positive when it comes to government expenditure, and unemployment level has no significant impact. The evidence shows a greater requirement of fiscal policies and institutional limits so as to put down opportunistic expenditure of the incumbent governments. Pakistan ought to think about institutionalizing long-term rules-based budgetary plans at provinces level to curb discretional expenditure during elections. Opportunistic fiscal expansions could be hindered by legal provisions making statutory budget ceilings obligatory before elections. Lastly, adopting practices of participatory budgeting on a local government level would increase citizen involvement and responsibility, which would minimize the room on fruitlessly spending money based on political interests

  pp. 18-29 Abstract views:208 Downloads:104