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• Open Access Article

  17 Pages Download PDF: The Empirics of Okun’s Law Using Augmented ARDL: The Case of Pakistan

  The Empirics of Okun’s Law Using Augmented ARDL: The Case of Pakistan

  Shah Khalid, Ibrar Hussain, Nafees Ahmad, Riaz Ahmad, Sajjadullah

  2025-12-02 https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v6i2.646

  From time series data covering 1972 to 2024, the objective of the study is to investigate the Okun's coefficient for Pakistan. The coefficient of Okun's law is determined using the Augmented ARDL econometric technique to estimate the long-run elasticities and short-run dynamics while sidestepping degenerate cases. Four variations of the Okun's law—the gap, difference, dynamic version, and augmented production function versions—are applied to estimate the Okun's coefficient. In order to measure output and unemployment gap, Hodrick-rescott (HP) filter is also used. The empirical results demonstrated that in case of Pakistan the law doesn’t hold as evidenced by the comparatively low coefficients obtained applying all four versions.

  pp. 1-17 Abstract views:255 Downloads:128

• Open Access Article

  19 Pages Download PDF: The Role of Energy Investment in Promoting Economic Sustainability in Developing Countries: A CS-ARDL Analysis

  The Role of Energy Investment in Promoting Economic Sustainability in Developing Countries: A CS-ARDL Analysis

  Aqeel Ahmad, Tusawar Iftikhar Ahmad, Asma Sajjad, Sajjad Ali

  2025-12-30 https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v6i2.673

  Energy investment plays a pivotal role in promoting economic sustainability through a reliable energy supply to support industrial production and innovation. The current work investigates the difference in energy investment and economic sustainability between 1990 and 2022 for 88 developing countries with an income classification. Using the Cross-Sectional Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) methodology, the research simultaneously tests short- and long-run dynamics while explicitly modeling cross-sectional dependence. The results suggest that although labor force participation, capital formation, human capital, and foreign direct investment have positive impacts on economic sustainability across income levels, energy investment, especially when used for creating public-private partnerships, fosters economic growth in middle-income economies but has a negative correlation with low-income economies. Policy implications drawn from the findings indicate that boosting investment in the energy sector, with special focus on the use of renewable technologies in low- income countries, would be an effective strategy for promoting sustainable development.

  pp. 75-93 Abstract views:144 Downloads:90

• Open Access Article

  14 Pages Download PDF: Extending Okun's Law to encompass the governance-unemployment nexus: New Insights from PMG/ARDL Approach

  Extending Okun's Law to encompass the governance-unemployment nexus: New Insights from PMG/ARDL Approach

  Muhammad Umar Farooq, Abdul Majeed Nadeem, Qasim Ali

  2025-06-29 https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v6i1.636

  This study has empirically aimed at estimating the short-and long-term dynamics of financial and institutional factors with respect to the unemployment rate in the case of the selected developing economies over the period of 1996-2023. The second-generation empirical analyses, such as cross-sectional dependence and unit-root analysis, support the use of pooled mean group regression analysis. The empirical outcomes of the pooled mean group regression have confirmed the existence of Okun’s law in the influence of a rise in control of corruption, government effectiveness, and political stability to reduce the unemployment rate in this region. Among the financial factors, the economic growth-unemployment rate nexus significantly validates the existence of Okun’s law. Further, the exchange rate is also highly significant in decreasing the unemployment rate in this region. However, the negative impact of the interest rate and the positive effect of broad money growth are surprisingly significant in affecting the unemployment rate and contradict the literature. Surprisingly, the institutional factors are more responsive to the unemployment rate compared with financial indicators. These outcomes suggest important policy implications regarding institutional and financial factors to control the unemployment rate in these economies

  pp. 68-81 Abstract views:187 Downloads:273

• Open Access Article

  13 Pages Download PDF: Asymmetric Approach to Investigating the EKC hypothesis: Evidence from the BRICS Countries

  Asymmetric Approach to Investigating the EKC hypothesis: Evidence from the BRICS Countries

  Misbah Nosheen, Muhammad Ali Abbas, Shehzad Ahmad, Javed Iqbal

  2025-06-22 https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v6i1.598

  Environmental challenges have emerged as one of the most critical matters affecting the globe today. Human-caused carbon emissions are the primary cause of these environmental challenges, and in order to decrease and mitigate their impacts, officials throughout the world are constantly researching their drivers and determinants. BRICS is considered a significant part of the world economy and energy markets. This study examines the EKC hypothesis for the BRICS while applying a nonlinear ARDL approach that distinguishes it from previous studies. For this purpose, this study decomposes the per-capita income (GPC) series into two components: the positive and the negative series. Empirical findings indicate that in the decomposed model, the coefficients of the positive series of GPC and GPC2 have significant negative and positive signs, respectively, in all countries of the region, which supports the EKC hypothesis. Results imply that BRICS governments need to focus on reducing their very considerable dependence on fossil fuels. The clean energy evolution can lead to the abandonment of fossil fuel assets, including those retained or supported by governments.

  pp. 1-13 Abstract views:199 Downloads:123

• Open Access Article

  9 Pages Download PDF: The Money Market Stability: Exploring the Role of Uncertainty in Pakistan

  The Money Market Stability: Exploring the Role of Uncertainty in Pakistan

  Ayza Shoukat, Muhammad Abdullah

  2025-12-02 https://doi.org/10.36923/jcmi.v6i2.632

  This study proposes an investigation into the relationship between money demand and economic uncertainty in Pakistan. This study extends the Keynes money demand function by including the optimal uncertainty index and analyzes the impact of uncertainty on the money demand. We employed annual data from 1990-2022 and ARDL for data analysis. We used money demand as the dependent variable, the world uncertainty index for Pakistan as a core explanatory variable, with other control variables. The empirical results indicate the existence of a long-run and direct relationship between uncertainty and money demand in Pakistan. The study also provides valuable implications for policymakers for a stable money market.

  pp. 30-38 Abstract views:197 Downloads:111